Πέμπτη 12 Μαρτίου 2009

http://euobserver.com/9/27762

UK Tories confirm they are to leave the EPP

LEIGH PHILLIPS

Today @ 09:25 CET

The UK's Conservative Party has confirmed to the European People's Party - the main centre-right grouping in the European Parliament - that it intends to leave and form a new political grouping in the chamber.

According to the BBC, the party's critic on Europe, Mark Francois, said that he, opposition foreign affairs critic William Hague and the leader of the Tories in the European Parliament, Timothy Kirkhope, on Wednesday (11 March) visited the chairman of the EPP, Joseph Daul, in Strasbourg to inform him of their intentions.

'European Conservatives' may be the name of the new group (Photo: Steve Back - www.politicalpictures.co.uk)

Tory leader David Cameron in 2005 during his leadership campaign had pledged to leave the parliament's centre-right political family due to his party's disagreement with its support for the Lisbon Treaty and, more generally, for its euro-federalist orientation.

Though the British Tories are committed to remaining in the European Union, euroscepticism has long flourished amongst their members of parliament, their voters and the conservative press in the UK.

Nevertheless, the length of time Mr Cameron has taken to fulfil his promise led some to believe he would not carry it out.

The move would also severely restrict the UK Tories participation in considering European legislation. The EPP is the largest grouping in the parliament and is expected to remain so after the June European elections.

Outside the EPP, the UK party will have considerably reduced influence in the chamber.

The UK public broadcaster reports that it has been told that the Tories intend to leave the EPP in May ahead of the elections and will form an entirely new political grouping in the parliament after the results are known.

Until now, speculation had suggested that if the Tories were to leave the EPP, they might join the second conservative grouping in the parliament, the Union for a Europe of the Nations (UEN).

The UEN is an uncomfortable amalgam of centre-right parties such as Ireland's Fianna Fail and hard-right parties such as Italy's xenophobic Northern League and the post-fascist Alleanza Nazionale.

However, Fianna Fail is set to leave the UEN after the elections and join the centrist Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (ALDE), while the two Italian parties have merged themselves with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom party, which is a member of the European People's Party, and will thus join the EPP in July.

"The meeting was amicable and during the course of it, we confirmed to Mr Daul our long-standing intention to leave the EPP and establish a new grouping in the European Parliament after the 2009 elections," said Mr Francois.

The BBC reports that the new political family in the parliament may be called 'European Conservatives'.

Πέμπτη 5 Μαρτίου 2009

http://www.esharp.eu/Web-specials/It-s-called-democracy-you-know

"It's called democracy, you know?"

On June 12 2008, Ireland voted against ratifying the Lisbon Treaty, the EU's blueprint for institutional reform. Among the salient moments of the campaign was the rise to political prominence of Declan Ganley, an enigmatic, self-made millionaire who professes to be passionately pro-European while attacking what he says is the undemocratic and untransparent nature of today's EU. With Ireland expected to hold a second vote on the treaty this October, Ganley has launched Libertas, which he describes as the first truly pan-European political party, to contest this June's European elections on a "No to the Lisbon Treaty" ticket. He spoke to Paul Adamson about his background, his views on Europe and his plans to shake up how the EU is run. Reproduced here is the full transcript of that conversation.

Declan Ganley in the Brussels offices of his Libertas party

Outside Ireland, at least, you’re not that well known, so why don’t you start off by describing who you are?

I would say I’m not known at all, because in what I have read, I would not recognise myself. I’m an Irishman: I’m the son of Irish immigrants who went to the UK to live because of the impoverished state of the west of Ireland at that time, in the same way that their parents had to do, generation after generation.

My family had had to temporarily emigrate for financial reasons. My grandmother, who is 97 years old, was a farm labourer in Scotland. She left the west of Ireland when she was a teenager, went to Scotland and picked potatoes. My dad set up a very small business in London in the construction industry and then moved back to Ireland to our family farm. I’m the product of the west of Ireland and I am somebody who is in awe of what Europe is, where a European civilisation comes from. And I feel very much a part of it. So I am both an Irishman and a European and I find those things not only complementary, but very much a part of each other.

To many people, your interest in European politics seems quite recent, but I know you’ve been writing about these issues at least since 2003. How far back does your active interest in European politics go?

I would say it depends on what you call Europe, but my active interest in European politics and in the shape of Europe goes back to my childhood.

Certainly at a very young age and during my teenage years I was very interested in European history. Once I finished school I went to the then Soviet Union and certainly that place made a deep impression on me. Watching Latvia gain its independence in particular – that was something that I had first-hand experience of because I was there around that time. Seeing the eviscerated soul of Russia in the form of the Soviet Union and understanding and seeing the direct consequences of what an unaccountable government can do. It did leave an impression, maybe even a scar.

And then the European project, in providing open markets and scope and opportunity, was something that I benefited greatly from as an entrepreneur. I built Broadnet [a cable TV company] across 10 countries in the European Union. I built a cable television company in Bulgaria, a forestry company in the former Soviet Union, a timber-exporting business in Latvia and several other things. Some of my businesses succeeded and some didn’t. But if Europe wasn’t there I couldn’t have done any of them.

And now do you see yourself more as a businessman or a politician?

I don’t see myself as a politician, for sure. I’m an entrepreneur – I think I always will be. But if you see something that is seriously wrong and nobody seems to be doing anything about it that’s really going to fix the problem...you may not be the best qualified for the job, you may not even be capable of doing it, but I do think there is such a thing as duty. It’s certainly something I was brought up to believe in. And I feel like I have a duty – first of all as a father to my four children, secondly as an Irishman and thirdly as a European – to stand up, and when something is wrong, to say “something’s wrong”. But not in a negative way – in a constructive way. And to say, “Look, here’s what I think we should be doing about it.”

We’ll come to details of that in a moment, but before we get there, I think one of the reasons why the No vote in Ireland was so surprising to so many people last year was because Ireland seemed to be such a spectacular success story. It had received so much money out of the EU budget and leveraged that money to become a very friendly home for inward investment. And with a low tax base – there’s been no Brussels interference in corporation tax. So do you agree that it’s rather odd that the Irish did vote No?

No, I would say that’s exactly the reason why they did. This is like sending someone through an education process, giving them all the resources and the ability to understand the world around them, the issues that face them, the challenges. Of course they’re going to be shaped by their unique experiences and freedom in Ireland and freedom of the individual. Not in a nationalistic way, but the dignity of the individual is something that’s very precious to us and always has been. It’s why we were prepared to fight the British Empire and whatever else was there in the past, and take on challenges that seemed insurmountable, yet we persevered and were successful in the end. This is not the mark of ingratitude or anything like that. What Ireland did was reflective of a mature, sensible, seriously European country who said, “There’s something wrong with this project right now, we’ve got to fix it – stop.”

And accusing us of being ungrateful is like being a family member. Let’s say there’s somebody with an alcohol problem or abuse problem in a family and somebody stands up and says “we’ve got to do something about this.” Does that mean you don’t love that person? Does that mean you don’t respect the family? No, I think it means you are the one that respects and loves that person, maybe even the most.

Nobody can say that the Irish are Eurosceptics, because they’re not. There was a Eurobarometer poll on the popularity of the EU across all of the member states, last year. The highest approval rating for Europe was Romania, and the second highest out of 27 countries was Ireland. And yet we went out and voted No. And we did it because we’re serious about Europe

I think that the point is not so much about lack of gratitude, though I know a lot of people do say that, but simply that it’s almost perverse or counter-intuitive that the Irish didn’t see the benefits themselves, the benefits of being pro-European when they voted No in the referendum.

But again – and I would say you’re guilty of it yourself – that presumes, if you take me as an example, that I do not recognise the benefits that have accrued to Ireland through European Union membership – the money, the access to markets, and so many more things. That would pre-suppose that I’m ungrateful, or that I don’t even recognise it, or that I thought the Irish people would think that somehow a No vote was the wrong thing to do for Ireland and for Europe. It wasn’t, it was the right thing to do.

Do you agree that Ireland’s standing and influence in the EU have diminished as a result of this No vote?

No I don’t. Because it depends what you mean by the EU. I mean, Europe to me is almost half a billion people across member states, and the fact that some people in Brussels who aren’t accountable to us at the ballot box are annoyed at what we have done is of no issue to me whatsoever. Or, I would suggest, to the Irish people. In Brussels they point the finger at Ireland in the same way that they did with the French and the Dutch and they say, “Oh, there’s something wrong with you, you did a bad thing.” No, the French, the Dutch and the Irish people, millions of them, have pointed the finger at this particular elite in Brussels and said, “No, there’s something wrong withyou, actually.”

I’m going to quote some of your own words back to you. In an article in 2003 you wrote: “A federal Europe is a pretty good idea, if it possessed an accountable administration with a clear European identity and position on the world stage; had vested in it not only those key disciplines that are best and most efficiently managed on a European level; embraced Europe’s diversity; and devolved as many matters as possible to Europe’s regions.” Many would say that’s exactly what the Lisbon Treaty was trying to do. Fair point?

It didn’t. If it did, I would have been out there campaigning for a Yes vote –absolutely. And I stand by what I said right then (and congratulations on reading, because so many journalists haven’t done that). The Lisbon Treaty didn’t do that; it didn’t do that at all. In fact, I would also say that if the Lisbon Treaty had done what it was supposed to do, or if the European constitution had done what it’s supposed to do, which was to meet the objectives of the Laeken declaration and move Europe closer to its citizens, I think it would have passed. I think it would have passed in France, in the Netherlands and in Ireland too.

So how would you then define your brand of European federalism, or European integration or European cooperation? What’s it about for you?

It’s about people. It’s about almost half a billion people across Europe. About making them feel like this is their project, because it is. If it’s not for them then who is it for? And if it is for them, that they need to be engaged, they have to feel a part of this. They have to have ownership; they have to be stakeholders. Their energy has to be harnessed to make Europe successful. What we actually have in Europe at the moment, in some of these institutions – and you may find this strange – is a certain mediocrity, a lack of ambition, a distrust of the public, a distrust of people, an unwillingness to engage with them and a default position which is to talk down to people, to criticise them when they ask us questions, to tell them that they’re somehow Eurosceptic.

It’s an arrogance and people find it grossly offensive. It alienates them. It turns them – and it feeds Euroscepticism, absolutely. Every day these people trot out more reasons and more examples that are fuel to Eurosceptics. And if it continues, it will destroy this project. And this project is too important to be destroyed by a few idiots.

So, as I understand it, you’re in favour of the European project as long as it is more accountable. So how would you make it more accountable?

It’s called democracy, you know? And it’s a pretty simple thing. If it takes more than a minute to explain what democracy is then it’s not democracy anymore. I was very amused, I was on some blog site a few days ago and somebody, some proponent of the Lisbon Treaty, had put together a useful diagram of how democracy worked through the Lisbon Treaty and there were so many moving parts to this diagram and input points and different processing areas and everything else. This person had convinced themselves that this had something remotely to do with the democratic process – which it doesn’t.

Democracy – okay well, I can’t do this graphically but let me take this pen as an example of my power as an individual citizen. Power devolves from the citizen. This is my power as an individual. And what I do in a democratic process to my lawmakers, for example, in Ireland, is I take my power – my little piece of it, my little opinion – and I lend it at the ballot box to a lawmaker, to an elected politician. I vote for them. And I lend it to them, I don’t give it to them. I lend it to them on condition that they use it wisely. And the most important thing about democracy is that if you don’t use properly my little bit of power that I lend you, I can take it off you and I can give it to this person over here.

Now what the Lisbon Treaty has done in countries that haven’t had a referendum is taken the power of the citizen – but that citizen has lent that power to elected politicians. And those parliaments have taken that citizen’s power and sovereignty and they’ve handed it to institutions in Brussels that the citizen can never hold accountable. It wasn’t theirs to give away in the first place, that wasn’t the deal. Now people may not be aware of this, and they’re not, but hopefully by June they will be.

But at the European Parliament elections in June people do get a chance to express their opinion by going to the ballot box.

Absolutely.

Isn’t that enough of an opportunity?

It would be, but the European Parliament is the weakest of the three institutions. I mean, you know, here in this city, to initiate laws, most laws, you have to be unelected – there’s something really wrong with that. Especially when a majority of new laws in most member states of the European Union – maybe even all of them – now originate from here. I was with the senior partner of one of the bigger law firms in the world within the last two weeks (I was giving a talk on this whole issue) and he said, “It’s very interesting, because you’re right.” Their law firm (and they’ll remain unnamed) like Brussels best for doing business, for lobbying, because, he said, “We just write the legislation that we want for our clients and we walk it through.”

Why would you ever lobby somebody in Berlin or Paris or Dublin or London when you can get laws passed through here. And when they land on the desk of the Irish parliament (if you take 2006, which is the year we have the figures for, 407 laws that year passed in the Irish parliament came from Brussels), the average amount of time that each one of those was considered for was 26 seconds. If you take Sweden as an example, these hundreds of pages arrive on a Thursday afternoon and they’re all ratified by the Swedish parliament by mid-Friday afternoon. No one’s reading this stuff.

I don’t want this to become a tutorial in European politics. There is a lot of legislation coming out of Brussels you say, but the European Commission more often than not proposes legislation at the direct request of both the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers. And when legislation is finally adopted, it is adopted by MEPs, who are elected every five years, and by member state ministers who are elected at the national level, so there is democratic scrutiny.

Well, there is – but it’s not working. And the European Parliament should not be the weakest of the three institutions here if we’re really serious about a democracy. There are other things in the Lisbon Treaty, for example, the president of the European Council. And you know, you can almost see Nicolas Sarkozy – he’s probably having dreams of being in that position as he jets around the world, enjoying representing almost half a billion people. I didn’t get to vote for him, I didn’t get to vote against him, neither did anybody else, so as a citizen I find that offensive. I don’t want somebody speaking for me on a global stage unless they’ve had the decency to provide me and everybody else with a manifesto, debated with other potential candidates and given me a choice. And have let me go to the ballot box and delegate my authority to them as one individual little citizen – or not. That’s democracy. And if we can’t do that then let’s not have that position.

Let’s move on then. You talk a lot about the lack of transparency in the EU but you know you’re often criticised for not being transparent yourself in how your activities are financed. Why don’t you just once and for all give a clear answer on that if only to avoid the irritation of constantly being asked the question?

But we have given a clear answer on it and we have complied with all of the rules and regulations. We said we raised every penny that we used in the campaign in Ireland from Irish citizens. And we said how much money we spent, which was in the region of €800,000.

That is vastly more information than the Yes side has released – and yet, you’re asking me that question and you have never asked any of them. What more can I do? I didn’t set the rules for disclosures of campaign funding in Ireland. I followed the same rules as everybody else. The fact that the Yes side has been far more opaque in their disclosures, there’s nothing I can really do about that.

Your campaign last year claimed a number of things about the Lisbon Treaty, including that it would impose abortion in Ireland.

No it didn’t. Quote me – you’ve stated something as a fact. The media, particularly in Europe has said that and it’s not true. We never said that.

So you deny that. Let me just finish this list then you can react to them one by one. So you say…

I think it’s even unfair to ask the question because, you know, I didn’t beat my wife either. Do you want me to say no to that?

What about the idea that it could lead to conscription to a European army?

I never said that that was an issue.

And to the imposition of the death penalty?

That we did say, in response to a question. But we certainly didn’t make it a campaign issue. This was on a TV programme or a radio interview or something and we did say there was a provision that in the case of risk of war or conflict (I can’t remember the exact article provision now) there was an ability for the death penalty to be re-introduced by a member state – which there is, but we didn’t make that in issue.

One final thing: is it true that your campaign said that the Charter of Fundamental Rights would introduce detention of three-year-olds for educational purposes?

What we said was – and again, that was in response to a question – we did say that there were (and we can get the article numbers and I can come back and give them to you), a set of specific articles that did deal with the issue of minors and the handling of minors under certain circumstances. But, of course, that was taken out of context and blown up into something. Again, it wasn’t an issue in any of the literature, in any of the speeches, any of the engagement that we did out in the streets with people. That was never an issue that was brought up.

You’re clearly against a second referendum in Ireland but there obviously will be one later on this year...

I don’t think that’s obvious.

Really?

Yes. Again, I think this crowd here have convinced themselves that it is. I think you have to listen very carefully at what people on all sides have been saying.

So you think there’s a quite distinct possibility that there might not be a second one?

I think that there is a distinct possibility that there will be one but I don’t think it’s obvious.

OK. What is the latest on your activities for the European elections and assembling this pan-European party list? How many candidates do you have and in how many countries are you fielding candidates?

We’re not ready to announce how many candidates we have but we hope it will be a significant number of high calibre individuals who are prepared to go out and take a stand and give people the opportunity to have their referendum on the anti-democratic Brussels of the Lisbon Treaty or a Europe that is democratic, accountable and transparent and is confident in its own future; a Europe that can stand up and have the ambition and courage to lead the world. And that’s going to be our message. We’re entering into very difficult times. Opportunists, scaremongers will try to get people to give away more of their freedom, more of their individual rights to people who are unaccountable to them at a ballot box. Libertas will be going out to the world with a very different message saying that European economic recovery and leadership is going to come from individuals – it’s going to come from the people. And that only when they get engaged with the European project and make it their project and allow it to belong to all of us across Europe is this thing going to really succeed – and is its potential going to be available to be exploited by the people, which is who this thing is supposed to be for.

You used the word “scaremonger”, but you must know that that’s precisely what people say about you and your campaign.

I know, but it’s not true. It’s a lie. They can call me a Eurosceptic and they can say all of these things. They can and do lie. They can attack us, they can call us names, they can make outrageous accusations with regard to what our motivations are – that we are not really Europeans, that we’re representing the interests of others and these types of things, but it’s not going to stop us from telling the truth.

So if you win seats in the European elections in June, what’s your plan? Will you form a group, or sit as independents?

No, it will be the first genuine pan-European political party, with party members, hopefully, sitting together in a Libertas party in the European Parliament with an agenda to bring democracy, accountability and transparency to the organs of European governance in a pro-European and constructive way. And to go out there and engage with the citizens, get people involved and have them know that they are represented, that Europe is theirs, it cares about them – and it is their opportunity to improve their lives, and the opportunities and the lives of their children and future generations.

And do you intend to lead this group in the European Parliament if you stand for election?

If I stand for election, yes I would.

You keep saying again and again that you’re passionately pro-European, but are you concerned at least about being judged by the company you keep, the people you share platforms with, the people who are much more clearly and unambiguously anti-European.

I don’t think that...people who are much more clearly and unambiguously anti-European would suggest that I am somehow anti-European, which I’m not. And it does get tiresome to keep saying that, but if anybody can point me to a single thing that I have said that is anti-European or even Eurosceptic, or that I have ever written anything that is anti-European or Eurosceptic, then I’d like to be able to correct the record because I never have, because it’s not what I am.

But in terms of, as you said, the company I keep, I presume that you mean, for example, [Czech] President Klaus paying a visit to us on his state visit to Ireland. I may not agree with President Klaus on a lot of things, and frankly I’ve never had that discussion with him, in terms of all of the things that we possibly don’t agree on. But what I do agree with him on is, as far as I can tell, this is a man who, whatever his views are on other issues, feels that democracy is something that is precious and important. And I don’t know what your political beliefs are, but if you share that view with me – and you are a democrat and democracy is something that you think should be at the heart of whatever happens at Europe, and that anything that comes or is derived from the Union, decisions that are made here – that should be the people’s decision, then we’ve got something really significant that we agree on. I don’t have to agree with you on anything else, but if you agree with me on that, then we’ve got grounds.

And I’ll say this, the tendency here is to say, if you’re not for us, you’re against us, and it’s very much – it’s just like Bush said, “if you’re not for us, you’re against us”. This is the exact same message that we’re getting out here: we’ve got all of these George Bush clones in terms of their mentality of “If you’re not for us you’re against us.” And anybody that raises a question – it’s like that Monty Python sketch where they keep turning around and saying “Witch! Witch! Witch!” So nobody wants to say anything, nobody wants to ask the question because they don’t want to get called a witch. And the fact is that many so-called Eurosceptics, I think, are not all Eurosceptics. I think they fit into a multitude of categories. And I think that many of them have been forced into this position by a compounding effect – one thing after another. And I think that at least a branch of what is called Euroscepticism – at least some of those people – if Europe was properly democratic and accountable, I think that they would be on side. I think that they could be brought back on side.

Well you mentioned your meeting with President Klaus during his state visit, what kind of things did you talk about? It is significant, isn’t it, that you met with each other during his visit?

It is significant. It was a mark of respect. We talked about the campaign in Ireland and it was a mark of respect that he showed for the majority of the Irish people who made a very clear decision in spite of all the interpretations that the people here have attempted to put on it. The Irish people made a very clear and informed decision in very large numbers and he came to represent and recognise that voice – the voice of the majority of Irish people: decent, well-informed people who went out and exercised their democratic right. And the fact that he was berated for that, that the political elites in Brussels and the political elites in Dublin who were isolated by this democratic decision by the Irish people, by the French people, by the Dutch people – the fact that that gets under their skin is of no consequence or concern to me. I don’t claim that the Irish people voted No because of me. They certainly didn’t – they voted No because they believed that that was the right thing to do. But I’m part of the majority, and I’d like to remind everybody in this city of that fact.

Last question. You say it’s tiresome, and tiring, to have to re-establish and re-iterate your European credentials but there do seem to be two Declan Ganleys. One, the moderate, reasonable, sensible guy who says again and again, “I am passionately pro-European, I believe in Europe for all sorts of reasons, both personal and professional.” And yet there’s the other Declan Ganley who goes on platforms and rails against everything “bad” coming out of Brussels and how the whole things needs to be totally reformed.

Are you not allowed to point those things out? For those people who criticised the Bush administration for their mistakes and failings, were they anti-American? I’d ask your readers that. Were they anti-American? Because if we cannot, as pro-Europeans, stand up like grown-ups and criticise what’s wrong with our system in a constructive way, in a pro-European way, if that makes us anti-European in the same way that people who had problems with the Bush administration might have been accused of being anti-American, then you know what? I don’t know where I live anymore.

But at least to many people there is a genuine confusion and they find it hard to understand where you’re coming from.

No, it’s stunning because you know, the majority of the Irish people did understand and I know from travelling around Europe (I’ve just come back from Stockholm this morning), I absolutely and sincerely believe that ours is the view of the majority of decent Europeans out there. They’re not against the European Union, they want it to succeed, they want it to be strong. They’d love Europe to be dynamic and be able to lead the world but they recognise that with all of the things that are currently wrong in this town, we’re not going to get there, we have to fix them. And that sometimes you’ve got to stand up.

Look, it shouldn’t be me. I’m a nobody, the son of farmers from the west of Ireland. Why does it take a nobody like me to come in here and point these things out? There are plenty of people in this town who should be doing the same thing from a pro-European perspective in the way that I have, who wouldn’t have the same ladder to climb in terms of getting heard or having these issues considered.

This place has become myopic, it has become blinkered, it has become single-minded, to the point where – I would agree with you – where people cannot even compute what it is that I’m saying in this town. But yet you go out of this town and people get it – everywhere across Europe.

January 21 2009

Τετάρτη 4 Μαρτίου 2009

ΕΕ και εκλογές: Η Ελλάδα παίζει;

Μια συνηθισμένη μέρα στηις Βρυξέλλες, περιπλανιέμαι διαδυκτιακά στα ελληνικά και διεθνή media. Έχω βρει πολλά blogs από νέους ανθρώπους οι οποίοι θέλουν να μάθουν για το τι γίνεται σήμερα στην Ευρώπη και κατηγορούν τα μέσα ενημέρωσης ότι δεν παρέχουν επαρκείς πληροφορίες για τα Ευρωπαϊκά θέματα και τις εκλογές του Ιουνίου. Στη Ελλάδα αυτή τη στιγμή ο κόσμος είναι τόσο απασχολημένος με την οικονομική του ανασφάλεια, που λίγο τους απασχολούν οι εκλογές. Γενικά αυτή η στάση όμως επικρατεί εδώ και καιρό. Δεν ξέρουμε τους υρωβουλευτές μας, ούτε αν υπάρχουν άλλα κόμματα που αντιπροσωπεύουν τις απόψεις μας αυτή τη στιγμή.
Λοιπόν, η ΕΕ βρίσκεται στο πιο αημαντικό σταυροδρμόμι της επιτυχούς πορείας της. 27 μέλη, σταθερή οικονομική δομή, βασικός παίχτης στο διεθνές σύστημα. Παράλληλα με τους πολιτικούς όρους όμως, η ΕΕ και οι αντιπρόσωποί της στα κράτη-μέλη έχουν κατηγορηθεί για διαφθορά, κάτάχρηση χρημάτων και φοροδιαφυγή. Φυσικά αυτό δεν μας φαίνεται και πολύ σοκαριστικό, αφού θεωρώ ότι δεν είμαι η μόνη που πιστεύει ότι κανένας πολιτικός δεν είναι 100% διαφανής.
Το θέμα είναι όμως να μην καθόμαστε ,με σταυρωμένα χέρια. 'Εχω ξαναγράψει πως το δικαίωμα ψήφου είναι πολύ μεγάλη δύναμη για τους πολίτες. Με την ψήφο μας μπορούμε να διαμαρτυρηθούμε, όχι με την αποχή μας. Γι΄αυτό δίνω πολλά χρυσά αστέρια σ΄αυτή την παράταξη, τη Libertas, η οποία πάει κόντρα στο ρεύμα και προσπαθεί με τον τρόπο της να αφυπνίσει το κοινό και ν ατο φέρει πιο κοντά στην Ευρώπη. 
Στην Ελλάδα δεν νομίζω να ξέρουν πολλοί για τη Libertas, ή αν τη γνωρίζουν δεν θα τη συμπαθούν και πολύ. Αλλά αξίζει λίγο της προσοχής μας, γιατί πρόκειται για έναν μικροσκοπικό "παίχτη", ο οποίος όμως θα μπορούσε να κάνει τη διαφορά.
 

Τρίτη 3 Μαρτίου 2009

Irish Times: "Libertas hires top US election campaigner"

DEREK SCALLY

LIBERTAS HAS hired a leading US election campaigner to spearhead the party’s pan-EU fund-raising and European Parliament election campaign in June.

Party founder Declan Ganley made the announcement at the launch of Libertas Partei Deutschland in Berlin yesterday, which will field German candidates in the June poll.

“We have brought on board one of the world’s leading internet fundraising strategists . . . Joe Trippi. He did Howard Dean’s campaign from which the Obama campaign learned very much,” said Mr Ganley.

As well as Mr Dean’s 2004 campaign, Mr Trippi has advised Ted Kennedy and John Edwards in their presidential bids.

Mr Ganley added that the Libertas website will be overhauled to start a “major pan-European fund-raising drive . . . to raise funds for the pan-European campaign in full compliance with each of the member states”.

Launching the German Libertas party yesterday, Mr Ganley said he hoped it would help “re-ignite democracy in Europe”.

“Germany is perhaps the most important keystone of European democracy,” he said. “It is here in the end what will decide whether or not we enter into a post-democratic Europe.”

As in other countries where it has launched, Libertas says it wants to turn Germany’s European elections into an unofficial referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

Germany is one of the countries yet to ratify the treaty: its highest court is expected to deliver its verdict in May on several constitutional challenges.

Mr Ganley said yesterday the Lisbon Treaty was “not a plot or grand conspiracy theory, but a series of bad decisions put into one pot, shaken up and poured out”.

The Lisbon Treaty would cement what he called the EU’s “anti- democratic” development.

“June is perhaps the only chance you’ll get to have a vote on this issue,” he said. “If Lisbon goes through I don’t know how it gets fixed up after this.”

German political analysts suggest the party urgently needs well-known German faces if it is to make an impression in June.

“If people weren’t currently distracted by the economic crisis, perhaps they would have had a chance of being noticed,” said Dominik Hierlemann, EU expert of the Bertelsmann Foundation. “Not least because the German EU consensus is not what it once was.”

In a five-and-a-half-page document, Libertas Deutschland introduced itself as a party of “traditional values and European goals like freedom, truthfulness, tolerance, common sense, family and human dignity”.

The party vowed to push for a simpler EU and an end to “secret lawmaking” in Brussels. A more detailed policy document is due before the end of March.

Asked how Libertas planned to make an impression on Germany’s political landscape, a party strategist said it was a “surprise”.

Another official said it was “too early to say” how many candidates Libertas would field in Germany.

The board members of Libertas Deutschland include Eva Schoeller, an Austrian project manager; Prof Horst-Richard Jekel, a Stuttgart consultant; and Carlos Gebauer, a writer, lawyer and actor in a fictional afternoon court show on German television.

This article appears in the print edition of the Irish Times

Δευτέρα 2 Μαρτίου 2009

http://www.in.gr/news/article.asp?lngentityid=991386&lngdtrid=245

Προσπάθεια για την διατήρηση της συνοχής κατέβαλαν οι «27» της ΕΕ
«Όχι» στον προστατευτισμό είπαν οι 27 ηγέτες της ΕΕ
Βρυξέλλες
Τελευταία ενημέρωση 01/03/09 22:10
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Βήματα για να γεφυρώσουν το χάσμα απόψεων για την αντιμετώπιση της οικονομικής κρίσης προσπάθησαν να κάνουν οι «27» κατά την έκτακτη Σύνοδο Κορυφής στις Βρυξέλλες· αποφάσεις για ενίσχυση κρίσιμων τομέων παρά τις επιμέρους ισχυρές διαφωνίες και αντιρρήσεις...

Οι Ευρωπαίοι ηγέτες κατά τη Σύνοδο αποφάσισαν την παροχή βοήθειας στις χώρες της ανατολικής Ευρώπης κατά περίσταση, εξετάζοντας χωριστά τα προβλήματα του κάθε κράτους μέλους και απορρίπτοντας την έκκλησή τους για μία πολυδάπανη, όπως προτάθηκε, λύση για όλους τους αδύναμους κρίκους.

Ο Τσέχος πρωθυπουργός και προεδρεύων του Συμβουλίου Κορυφής για το τρέχον εξάμηνο Μίρεκ Τοπολάνεκ εξέφρασε την ελπίδα ότι η ΕΕ δεν θα αφήσει χωρίς προστασία τις ανατολικές χώρες που αντιμετωπίζουν σοβαρά οικονομικά και πολιτικά προβλήματα από την κρίση.

«Όλα τα κράτη-μέλη της ΕΕ θα λάβουν την αναγκαία βοήθεια, ανάλογα με την περίπτωση», διευκρίνισε αλλά πρόσθεσε ότι «η ιδέα να χωρίσουμε την Ευρώπη σε παλιά και νέα μέλη, σε Ανατολή και Δύση...είναι μια προσέγγιση που σαφώς απορρίπτουμε».

Σε δηλώσεις του ο Ζοζέ Μανουέλ Μπαρόζο, ανέφερε ότι οι χώρες της ανατολικής Ευρώπης –που είχαν προσέλθει με κοινή γραμμή- δεν ζητούν χωριστό πρόβλημα, γιατί κάθε μία έχει διαφορετικά προβλήματα. «Οι συνθήκες είναι πολύ διαφορετικές από τη μια χώρα στην άλλη στην ανατολική Ευρώπη. Δεν υπάρχει ειδικός λόγος να αντιμετωπιστεί διαφορετικά μια ομάδα κρατών».

«Υπήρξε συναίνεση για την αποφυγή μονομερών μέτρων προστατευτισμού», δήλωσε ο πρόεδρος της Κομισιόν, Ζοζέ Μανουέλ Μπαρόζο.

Οι 27 ηγέτες της ΕΕ συμφώνησαν, όπως υπογραμμίζει το κοινό ανακοινωθέν, ότι η Ευρώπη θα μπορέσει να αντιμετωπίσει και να εξέλθει από την παρούσα οικονομική κρίση, μόνο αν εξακολουθήσει να δρα με συντονισμένο τρόπο, εντός του πλαισίου της ενιαίας αγοράς και της οικονομικής και νομισματικής ένωσης.

«Όχι» της Μέρκελ σε πακέτο για την ανατολική Ευρώπη

Πριν την έναρξη της Συνόδου, οι ηγέτες εννέα ανατολικών χωρών (Βουλγαρία, Εσθονία, Λετονία, Λιθουανία, Ουγγαρία, Πολωνία, Ρουμανία, Σλοβακία, Τσεχία) ζήτησαν συγκεκριμένη δράση από τους ηγέτες των πλουσιότερων δυτικών χωρών της ΕΕ και αποφυγή των κινήσεων προστατευτισμού εκ μέρους τους.

Ο Ούγγρος πρωθυπουργός Φέρεντς Γκιουρκσάνι είχε κάνει έκκληση να μην χωριστεί και πάλι η Ευρώπη από ένα νέο οικονομικού τύπου Σιδηρό Παραπέτασμα. Έκκληση για κοινή δράση έκανε και ο Τσέχος πρωθυπουργός. «Δεν θέλουμε μία Ευρώπη διαιρεμένη σε νέες γραμμές Βορρά-Νότου ή Ανατολή-Δύση», υπογράμμισε.

Πάντως, η Γερμανίδα καγκελάριος Ανγκελα Μέρκελ προσερχόμενη στη Σύνοδο απέρριψε την πρόταση να δοθεί ένα πακέτο στην ανατολική Ευρώπη αφού «δεν θα ήταν συνετό». Πρότεινε αντίθετα να εξεταστεί κάθε περίπτωση χωριστά καθώς, μιλώντας ειδικά για την Ουγγαρία, «δεν μπορεί να συγκρίνει κανείς» τη δεινή κατάσταση της χώρας με αυτή των άλλων χωρών.

Newsroom ΔΟΛ, με πληροφορίες από Associated Press, ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ


Τρίτη 24 Φεβρουαρίου 2009

http://www.enet.gr/online/online_text/c=111,dt=05.07.2008,id=12004400

ΝΤΕΚΛΑΝ ΓΚΑΝΛΕΪ Ο ΙΡΛΑΝΔΟΣ ΠΡΟΕΔΡΟΣ ΤΗΣ ΟΡΓΑΝΩΣΗΣ «ΛΙΜΠΕΡΤΑΣ», Ο... «ΚΥΡΙΟΣ ΟΧΙ», ΜΙΛΑΕΙ ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΚΑΤΑΨΗΦΙΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΣΥΝΘΗΚΗΣ ΤΗΣ ΛΙΣΑΒΟΝΑΣ ΚΑΙ ΑΝΤΙΚΡΟΥΕΙ ΤΑ ΠΕΡΙ «ΑΜΕΡΙΚΑΝΙΚΟΥ ΔΑΚΤΥΛΟΥ»

«Να φύγει από την Ε.Ε. η μη εκλεγμένη ελίτ των Βρυξελλών»

Του ΝΙΚΟΥ ΚΑΤΖΗΛΑΚΗ

Είναι ο μυστηριώδης «κύριος "όχι"», χαρακτηρισμό που απεκόμισε από τις μεγαλύτερες ευρωπαϊκές εφημερίδες, ως ο κύριος υπεύθυνος για την κινητοποίηση του μέσου Ιρλανδού στην καταψήφιση της Συνθήκης της Λισαβόνας, εμφανιζόμενος πρόσφατα στην πολιτική σκηνή και εξελισσόμενος ταχύτατα ως η πιο «καθαρή» φωνή αντίθεσης στην ευρωσυνθήκη.

Ο Ντέκλαν Γκάνλεϊ ανακοινώνει το σχέδιό του για κάθοδο της οργάνωσής του «Λίμπερτας» στην Ελλάδα, στο πλαίσιο μιας πανευρωπαϊκής εκστρατείας για τις ευρωεκλογές του 2009 (φωτ.: Ass. Press)
Επιτυχημένος επιχειρηματίας ων, με πλούτο που απέκτησε κυρίως μέσω δράσεων στην ανατολική Ευρώπη και συμβολαίων παροχής τηλεπικοινωνιακών συστημάτων με την αμερικανική εθνοφρουρά, προκάλεσε πλήθος -δικαιολογημένων και μη- ερωτημάτων και κατηγοριών. Ο Ντέκλαν Γκάνλεϊ, πρόεδρος της οργάνωσης «Λίμπερτας», μίλησε στην «Ε» τηλεφωνικά από το Δουβλίνο με χαρακτηριστικό πάθος, στεντόρεια φωνή και ευφυείς ελιγμούς, δικαιολογώντας την «πειστική» εντύπωση που απεκόμισαν οι Ιρλανδοί πολίτες από αυτόν. Στη συνέντευξη που ακολουθεί, διαψεύδει τις φήμες για «αμερικανικό δάκτυλο», μιλώντας για μια «ισχυρή Ευρώπη», δηλώνει αντίθετος με «φαινόμενα μπερλουσκονισμού» και απαντάει σε Ευρωπαίους πολιτικούς που κατέκριναν το ιρλανδικό «όχι», λέγοντας ότι «πρέπει να κάνουν ένα διάλειμμα από την πολιτική ως μη εκλεγμένοι και σε αντίθεση με το πολίτευμα», πιστεύοντας ότι το πρόσφατο δημοψήφισμα αποτελεί την έναρξη μιας «ευρωπαϊκής αναγέννησης». Και, παράλληλα, ανακοινώνει το σχέδιό του για κάθοδο της οργάνωσής του στην Ελλάδα, στο πλαίσιο μιας πανευρωπαϊκής εκστρατείας για τις ευρωεκλογές του 2009.

Κ. Γκάνλεϊ, υπάρχουν επίμονες φήμες για την επιθυμία των ΗΠΑ να υπονομεύσουν τη Συνθήκη της Λισαβόνας και πολλοί επικριτές σάς θεωρούν αμερικανικό δάκτυλο...

«Είναι βλακείες. Προήλθε από έναν ασήμαντο πολιτικό που είναι λίγο παράφρων και εφηύρε αυτήν την τρελή θεωρία συνωμοσίας. Και μια στρατευμένη στην υπερψήφιση της συνθήκης εφημερίδα τις δημοσίευσε. Βγήκαμε και διεξαγάγαμε μια φιλοευρωπαϊκή εκστρατεία που κατέδειξε το γιατί αυτή είναι μια κακή συνθήκη για την Ιρλανδία και την Ευρώπη, λόγω δημοκρατικού ελλείματος. Δεν είχαν επιχειρήματα για να αντιπαραθέσουν στις θέσεις μας. Οπότε τι να έκαναν; Επιτέθηκαν στον αρχηγό του αντίπαλου στρατοπέδου. Εμείς το αγνοήσαμε. Δεν απαντήσαμε και συνεχίσαμε να μεταδίδουμε το μήνυμά μας. Διότι ήθελαν να αποσπάσουντην προσοχή μας. Και τώρα, κάποιοι Ευρωπαίοι πολιτικοί συνεχίζουν την αναπαραγωγή των φημών, διότι γνωρίζουν ότι ερχόμαστε και ότι μπορούμε να αλλάξουμε δυναμικά τη φύση των ευρωεκλογών του 2009, καθιστώντας τις το δημοψήφισμα που αρνήθηκαν οι κυβερνήσεις στους πολίτες τους για τη συνθήκη. Και η «Λίμπερτας» μπορεί να προωθήσει αυτό το επιχείρημα πανευρωπαϊκά. Αυτήν την εβδομάδα, λανσάρουμε την πανευρωπαϊκή εκστρατεία χρηματοδότησης της καμπάνιας για τις ευρωεκλογές. Δεν έχουμε αποφασίσει ακόμη, αλλά σχεδιάζουμε να έλθουμε και στην Ελλάδα. Διότι, παρ' ότι οι Ευρωπαίοι πολίτες είναι ευρωπαϊστές, η μόνη επιλογή που έχουν είναι να δώσουν την εξουσία τους χωρίς να ερωτηθούν από τα κατεστημένα κόμματα που συμφωνούν με ό,τι πουν οι Βρυξέλλες ή να ψηφίσουν κάποιον αντιευρωπαϊστή. Οπότε, πού βλέπουν το μεγάλο κέντρο που ορίζει το τι θέλουν οι πολίτες οι οποίοι επιθυμούν μια Ε.Ε. ισχυρή και ευημερούσα, αλλά τη θέλουν επίσης και δημοκρατική; Πιστεύουμε ότι η μεγάλη πλειοψηφία των Ευρωπαίων το θέλει αυτό. Αλλά πρέπει να δώσουμε σε αυτούς τους πολίτες τη δυνατότητα να πουν "όχι" στο σύνταγμα -διότι περί αυτού πρόκειται- της Λισαβόνας».

Συνεργασία με εθνοφρουρά των ΗΠΑ

Λέγεται επίσης ότι, παρ' ότι αντιτίθεστε στην ανάμιξη της Ιρλανδίας με μια πιθανή δημιουργία ενός ευρωπαϊκού στρατού, μια εταιρεία σας συνεργάζεται με τον αμερικανικό στρατό.

«Πιστεύουμε ότι, εάν είσαι μέλος μια οικογένειας που απειλείται, δεν μπορείς να πεις ότι είσαι ουδέτερος. Εχεις χρέος. Οπότε, πιστεύω ότι η αρχή της ουδετερότητας είναι ανήθικη. Κάποιες ομάδες που επίσης αντετίθεντο στη συνθήκη, επιχειρηματολογούσαν υπέρ της ουδετερότητας. Αλλά, προσωπικά, κάθε φορά που ερωτήθηκα, απάντησα ότι δεν μας εκφράζει. Η εταιρεία για την οποίθα ρωτάτε, έχει συμβόλαιο με την αμερικανική εθνοφρουρά, παρέχοντας συστήματα επικοινωνίας. Ελαβα μετάλλιο από την πολιτεία της Λουιζιάνας των ΗΠΑ για την παροχή αυτών των συστημάτων μετά τον τυφώνα Κατρίνα, όπου και χρησιμοποιήθηκαν και έσωσαν ζωές. Τα παρέχουμε επίσης στην αστυνομία και στις υπηρεσίες εκτάκτων αναγκών σε 17 ακόμη πολιτείες. Δεν είπαν ψέματα λοιπόν για αυτό, αλλά διαστρέβλωσαν την πραγματικότητα».

Πολλά έχουν ειπωθεί επίσης για το αρνητικό φαινόμενο πολυεκατομμυριούχων να αναμιγνύονται άμεσα, όπως ο Μπερλουσκόνι, ή έμμεσα, όπως εσείς, με την πολιτική.

«Είτε είσαι εκατομμυριούχος είτε όχι, η ψήφος σου μετράει το ίδιο με έναν άστεγο. Ετσι θα πρέπει να είναι. Εάν αναμιγνυόμουν στην πολιτική, θα αποσυνδεόμουν από οποιοδήποτε επιχειρηματικό συμφέρον. Δεν είμαι καθόλου υπέρ του φαινομένου Μπερλουσκόνι. Δεν θα πρέπει να υπάρχουν ειδικά συμφέροντα στην πολιτική αυτό είναι το πρόβλημα με τις Βρυξέλλες. Ως πολίτης, κατά τη Συνθήκη της Λισαβόνας, θα πρέπει να συγκεντρώσεις ένα εκατομμύριο υπογραφές, για να διαβαστεί απλώς το αίτημά σου, την ώρα που εάν πλήρωνες τέσσερα εκατομμύρια ευρώ σε λομπίστες στις Βρυξέλλες, θα προωθούσες το ζήτημά σου αμέσως».

Βλέπετε να επαναλαμβάνεται ό,τι και με τη Συνθήκη της Νίκαιας, την οποία οι Ιρλανδοί υπερψήφισαν τη δεύτερη φορά που κλήθηκαν σε δημοψήφισμα; Ποιες είναι οι διαφορές και οι ομοιότητες μεταξύ των δύο καταστάσεων;

«Εάν υπάρξουν αλλαγές στη συνθήκη, σαφώς, αν και, από ό,τι είδα τις τελευταίες εβδομάδες, είναι απίθανο. Η συμμετοχή στο δημοψήφισμα για τη Συνθήκη της Νίκαιας ήταν πολύ χαμηλή, εν αντιθέσει με το σημερινό δημοψήφισμα. Είχαμε τη μεγαλύτερη συμμετοχή πολιτών σε αυτό το δημοψήφισμα στην ιστορία της Ιρλανδίας -κάτι σοκαριστικό για το αντίπαλο στρατόπεδο».

«Πιστεύω ότι οι ιστορικοί θα λένε ότι η ιρλανδική άρνηση ήταν ένα σημείο καμπής όπου η Ευρώπη δόθηκε πίσω στους 500 εκατομμύρια πολίτες της από την ολιγαρχία των Βρυξελλών...» (φωτ.: Ass. Press)
Ο Ζοσέ Μπαρόζο δήλωσε ότι είναι πολύ δύσκολο να υπάρξει επαναδιαπραγμάτευση για τη Συνθήκη της Λισαβόνας. Πιστεύετε ότι αυτό είναι μη αναστρέψιμο ή ότι πράγματι είναι η αρχή μιας διαπραγμάτευσης; 

«Δεν με ενδιαφέρει τι λέει, διότι δεν αντιπροσωπεύει κανέναν. Ο Μπαρόζο δεν έχει τη δυνατότητα του βέτο. Η Ιρλανδία την έχει. Και την εξάσκησε. Αυτό σημαίνει ότι δεν μπορεί να επικυρωθεί η Συνθήκη της Λισαβόνας. Είναι νεκρή. Και η αλαζονεία ειδικά αυτού του ανθρώπου -ο οποίος δεν έχει ψηφιστεί από κανέναν-, που λέει ότι η συνθήκη ζει, είναι συγκλονιστική. Ποιος είναι αυτός ο κύριος που μιλάει για τους Ευρωπαίους; Πρέπει να επανασχεδιαστεί το σύνταγμα της Ευρώπης. Να γραφτεί με απλό, κατανοητό τρόπο σε 25 σελίδες, ώστε όλοι να καταλάβουν τι λέει, και να δοθεί σε όλους η δυνατότητα να ψηφίσουν υπέρ ή κατά αυτού. Ο Μπαρόζο, βέβαια, διαπραγματεύεται ήδη. Οι Βρυξέλλες πίστευαν ότι θα μπορούσαν να επιβάλουν στην Ιρλανδία την αποδοχή της συνθήκης. Εχουμε νέα για αυτούς τους κυρίους, όμως: εμείς, οι πολίτες της Ευρώπης, πρέπει να ανατρέψουμε αυτήν την κατάσταση και να αλλάξουμε τους κανόνες της διαπραγμάτευσης. Θα προσπαθήσουμε να συλλέξουμε χρηματοδότηση και από την ψυχή της Ευρώπης, την Ελλάδα, για τον νέο πανευρωπαϊκό οργανισμό που θα επιδιώξει αυτήν την ανατροπή».

Η ελίτ των Βρυξελλών

Ο ευρωβουλευτής Ντανιέλ Κον Μπεντίτ και ο Γερμανός υπουργός Εξωτερικών δήλωσαν ότι η Ιρλανδία πρέπει να φύγει ή να κάνει ένα διάλειμμα από την Ε.Ε. λόγω του δημοψηφίσματος.

«Η μόνη που πρέπει να φύγει από την Ε.Ε. είναι η μη εκλεγμένη ελίτ των Βρυξελλών. Ο υπουργός Εξωτερικών της Γερμανίας πρέπει να κάνει ένα διάλειμμα από την πολιτική, γιατί απομακρύνεται πολύ από την αρχή τής δημοκρατικής λογοδοσίας».

Λέγεται όμως ότι η συνθήκη σηματοδοτεί ένα σημαντικό δημοκρατικό βήμα, δίνοντας π.χ. μεγαλύτερες εξουσίες στην Ευρωβουλή και δυνατότητες προσβολής ευρωπαϊκών νομοθεσιών από τα εθνικά κοινοβούλια.

«Είναι μια πολιτική αερολογία. Εάν σου παίρνει έστω και ένα λεπτό να εξηγήσεις τι είναι η δημοκρατία, δεν ζεις πλέον σε δημοκρατία. Δημοκρατία έχουμε όταν το άτομο που κατέχει την εξουσία και νομοθετεί, ζητεί την ψήφο σου». 

Τι πιστεύετε ότι θα λένε οι Ευρωπαίοι για το ιρλανδικό «όχι» σε λίγα χρόνια από σήμερα;

«Πιστεύω ότι οι ιστορικοί θα λένε πως η ιρλανδική άρνηση ήταν ένα σημείο καμπής, όπου η Ευρώπη δόθηκε πίσω στους 500 εκατομμύρια πολίτες της από την ολιγαρχία των Βρυξελλών. Και ότι, χάρη σε αυτό, άρχισε η ευρωπαϊκή αναγέννηση ως ηγέτις δύναμη». *


ΕΛΕΥΘΕΡΟΤΥΠΙΑ - 05/07/2008

http://euobserver.com/9/27664

Big groups to retain power in EU parliament

PHILIPPA RUNNER

Today @ 09:14 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The balance of power in the European Parliament would stay broadly the same if elections were held today, national polls indicate. The mainstream parties would lose some ground, while far left and far right parties would gain.

The centre-right EPP-ED group would fall from 284 seats to around 265. The centre-left PES faction would drop from 215 to about 195 and the liberal ALDE group would dip from 103 to around 95.

Opinion polls ahead of EU elections have in the past underplayed the appeal of radical and eurosceptic groups (Photo: wikipedia)

The results come from extrapolating 19 national opinion polls published in January and February, in the early convulsions of the financial crisis.

The smaller groups - the far-left GUE-NGL, the Greens, the right-wing UEN and the eurosceptic IND/DEM - are harder to call because they rely more on fringe party and independent members, many of which don't show up on national surveys.

Despite this, polls suggest GUE-NGL would become the fourth largest faction with about 40 seats, followed by the Greens and UEN on 35 each.

The mix would leave some 70 seats to be contested out of a total of 736. Far-right groups are poised to scoop at least 20. The new anti-Lisbon treaty Libertas party is also likely to do well and may put IND/DEM out of business. Libertas' French branch alone is set to take four seats.

Shifting allegiances may complicate the picture. The UK Conservative party has promised to leave the EPP-ED and may form a new group with the Czech centre-right ODS party.

Italian right-wing party Alleanza Nationale is leaving UEN for the EPP-ED-linked Il Popolo della Liberta party of Italian leader Silvio Berlusconi.

Putting all this together, the new parliament could see: EPP on around 235, PES with 200, ALDE on 90, GUE-NGL with 40, the new British Conservative-led group on 40, the Greens with 35 and UEN just above 25. There could also be a new far-right or a new eurosceptic group. The minimum for forming a group is 25 MEPs from at least seven countries.

"Opinion polls in previous European elections (particularly with four months to go) have tended to slightly over-estimate support for governing parties and large opposition parties, and to underestimate support for small extreme parties, particularly anti-European movements," London School of Economics expert Simon Hix said.

Hurricane warning

The elections will take place between 4 and 7 June. With banks wobbling, factories closing and people protesting on the streets, the economic crisis is likely to cause political hurricanes in Europe in the run-up to the vote. Last week, the Latvian government fell.

The national opinion polls are a crude way of forecasting EU elections. The EU vote is largely based on list systems, where parties put out nationwide or near-nationwide lists of MEPs for voters to choose from, instead of choosing between individuals in local constituencies. Most lists are not yet out.

EU elections also tend to favour radical parties because of low turnout and the perception that the European Parliament has little impact on daily life. A European Commission survey in January showed that just 34 percent of people intend to vote.

Radical parties do well on low turnout because their highly-motivated supporters go to the urn in proportionally greater numbers than mainstream voters. The air of levity makes people happier to make protest votes, while supporting a safe pair of hands in national politics.

Zooming in

Zooming in on some of the changes since 2004, EPP-ED parties have surged in the UK, Italy and Poland but have suffered in Germany, the Czech Republic, Greece and Hungary. A February corruption scandal in Spain's centre-right Partido Popular could also hurt.

PES parties have gained ground in Sweden, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. But French socialists look to be down by 13 seats. The Italian centre-left Partito Democratico, which sends MEPs to both PES and ALDE, is in disarray after its leader, Walter Veltroni, resigned last week.

Liberals are on the up in Germany and France. But the fate of the Polish liberal delegation - six MEPs from tiny parties - remains unclear until the Polish lists come out.

The far-left has inched forward in Germany, France, Greece and Portugal, while holding its ground in the rest of Europe, except in the Czech Republic.

Meanwhile, far right supporters are one the rise. The Dutch anti-Islamist PVV group is set to field five MEPs. France's Front National another five and Austria's nationalist FPO and BZO are together likely to send five more.